The Era “C” – our new reality

The 2020 outbreak of the Corona virus is already an event of historic dimensions.

Some thoughts:

Is this the ultimate challenge of our lives?
Until recently, no-one would ever have imagined that within weeks, our world would turn into something that so far only existed in fiction: A global virus outbreak, public life shut down, borders closed and economies about to crumble.

But navel-gazing, hoarding and feeling sorry for ourselves will not get us anywhere.
Now is not the time for panic – now is the time to plan our future.
The time to panic was at the end of January, when travel to and from China continued unrestricted while there was a known virus outbreak – and “no-one cared”. Planes and ships with thousands of tourists and business travellers continued “business as usual” and distributed the virus around the world, while WHO, CDC and RKI spread de-escalating messages “no risk of a global pandemic”. Looks like they were wrong.

And so are we: If we only keep worrying about our stack of toilet paper, ways to trick the self-isolation rules and how to kill time at home, we will just be passengers on this runaway train. Now is the time to build our future:

– Apparently there are large differences in the way different countries are dealing with the corona crisis. Finding the “sweet spot” between protecting the economy and fighting the virus might decide which country has a future and which not. Will this shift the leadership roles between the nations? Which countries are likely to raise to the new super-powers and leaders of the “free world” – after the crisis? And which ones will have crippled their economies and societies into oblivion or have simply not been prepared enough ( living “hand to mouth”… )?

– Which industries will soar “in the world after” and which will have taken permanent damage?

– In which order will supplies and services be no longer available if the crisis spins further out of control ( food, water, fuel, pharmaceutical products, internet, electricity, health care, media, police (safety against rising crime… )?

– Our local production, services and retail need to thrive, especially in “essential” markets like food and daily supplies. Wouldn’t it make sense to start encouraging micro-farming and gardening, even having a few chickens and maybe a cow in rural areas – to create a safety net for food supplies? That’s where government incentives (and easing the rules…) are needed. Also they need to provide / allow the use of land for this (tourism areas > gardening).

– Will we learn anything from this crisis – or will all air-travel, globalisation, lack of crisis prevention go back to “normal” if we get a break?

Some random thoughts:

– The world will not be like before and neither will business. Especially tourism is facing a dark fate for the next years: those depending on it for an income, should start re-thinking and building a new strategy, NOW.

– In some countries, stranded tourists were molested by the mob and treated aggressively by the authorities. Let’s never forget that and make sure, these countries will never see travellers again. Let them come to our doorsteps and beg for bread when their tourism industry has crashed.

– Move on and stop feeling sorry for yourself! Those who have to work everyday among other people, those with medical problems, pregnant, small kids, seniors in retirement homes, those putting food on your plates – they are the ones with a right to feel sorry for themselves: ironically, most of them don’t. They don’t have the time for it.

– Animal shelters are noticing an increased demand from people looking for a dog to walk and even to adopt. Some of these people might just be bored in their “isolation” and look for company – but as it seems, some are looking for “alibi dogs” to circumvent the quarantine. These dogs will surely be abandoned once the crisis is over.

– Those who still ridiculed “the media hype” a few days ago are now hoarding toilet paper, hand sanitiser and face-masks. For themselves. Not for the community. Everyone goes into self-preservation mode. As if masks and hand sanitiser would save them…

– What actually can save us is our immune system. Compared to the face mask, it is a thermonuclear weapon in the fight against the virus: factory-pre-installed to our body at delivery and constantly updated over the years: Our immune system and other body defences. And our best chance against C. More: click

– Is there going to be a baby boom in nine months after all this idling time at home  ?

Anyone interested in joining a chat group to talk about something useful – now that we have so much time…? Please no “conspiracy theorists” and panic ridden emotionalists. Please PM.

Just found this:

Warning of a pandemic in Romanian TV – exactly one year ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5AYM3nfjfPw&feature=youtu.be

Some thoughts from Mid-February:

And it is here. In our world. In our neighbourhood. It is our new reality.

The “Spreading” happened mid-January, we are only seeing the results now. In January, health institutions WHO, CDC and Robert Koch Institut played down the global risk of a pandemic. Travel and business continued “as usual” and thousands of Chinese continued traveling the world as tourists. Business travel to and from China was also unrestricted, as were the shipments. The virus silently spread out – with hardly any signs of an outbreak. This week, a strain was analysed in Washington DC – scientist are convinced that it must have been there for weeks! washingtonpost.com

Latest: top to bottom…

  • Germany – “state of emergency”?

    If you are under the suspicion of being infected with the C virus in Germany, (it is enough live in an area with known spreads of the virus or having been in contact with a person that is infected) you will be put under “home-quarantine”. 14 days – which equals the estimated incubation time (from infection until symptoms). During that time:

    • authorities are allowed to enter your home (without warrant)
    • authorities are allowed to examine you without permission
    • you are NOT allowed to leave your home (flat or property). NO exceptions: not even walk your dog, rescue your child, or protect your business or property.
    • you are NOT allowed to receive visitors
    • you are required to write a diary and measure your temperature twice a day

    Source: https://www.stern.de/gesundheit/wegen-coronavirus-verdacht-in-haeusliche-quarantaene–so-laeuft-sie-ab-9166534.html

    All this happens without the mentioning of any virus test…

    This protocol has been created by the German Robert Koch Institut, an institute which stated a few weeks after the China outbreak, that there is no real threat for the (German) population.

None of our (Western) governments stepped up and presented emergency plans in January. China went to extremes trying to contain the outbreak – and bought us time. We did not use it. No emergency plans, no government programs to produce effective test kits for the virus and to prepare the population. “Over”-Produce stocks of masks, disinfectants and food. Nothing. They started of February. At the end of February. Until now, most testing was reduced to “fever thermometers”. And recommendations are “to wash your hands”… 

  • How does the new coronavirus compare with the flu? (Mortality rate etc): https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html
  • Shocking article from German “Stern” magazine: a returning traveller, with symptoms but no acute outbreak was looking for a test and help and did not find it: (in German, use Google translate…) The problem of the test kits… https://www.stern.de/panorama/weltgeschehen/coronavirus–wie-ich-vergeblich-darum-gekaempft-habe–getestet-zu-werden-9161924.html
  • “The race against C” was already lost, when travel and shipment from China continued “as usual” in early January – and when people considered their vacation or business trip more important than avoiding a global pandemic… The virus is “here” for quite a while now – we are just waiting for the outbreak
  • Isolation and shutdown as well as breathing masks will not change the situation, just delay it
  • vaccination will only be available in about one year – when the virus will already have passed through 70% of the world’s population (without consequences for most)
  • key element right now is the availability of the virus test kit and access for the population

Until a few weeks ago, we were shrugging off the Corona Virus (“C”) as “Made in China” and “Brought to you by globalisation”…: it seemed to not have any direct effect on us. Those with empathy felt sorry for the people in Wuhan and for their pets, those with greed were worried about the impact on production in China and international transport. But few worried about an impact on daily life here, at home: on their own health or their own lives.

Then a few isolated cases appeared (Germany – Webasto) and people still believed it did not concern them. Now regions in Italy are shut down. Italy’s neighbours and other European countries are starting to guard their borders from anything coming from Italy.

The media is busily reporting, counting the victims and trying to avoid a panic, while at the same time profiting from the “story of the century” during this historic event. But nobody addresses the key questions:

  • How will my government deal with the state of emergency once “the party starts”? will we be kept inside our houses and cities with military and police force? Will there eventually be martial law?
  • How will supplies be organised and secured?
  • If you are location independent, what is the best place to sit out the pandemic? The city, the countryside, another continent, another planet?
  • Who has proper kit available to do a real virus test – and not just take your temperature?
  • Where do you get the best help if you get hit hard / is there any help (it is a virus…)?
  • Who are we? How are we dealing with the threat? In the Ukraine, a bus full of homecoming travellers was attacked by the mob. Will we get lynched when we sneeze in our cities? Some people even said “ah, it only concerns elder people…” would they repeat this to the face of their grandmother? How did we support China?

Is there anything we can do for prevention and how can we prepare our body for the arrival of C?

    • it is called “IMMUNE SYSTEM”, baby! stop looking for outside help and let your body get the job done. There is no vaccination, no pills for curing and no doctor can help you – but your immune system will! (in 90% of the cases, it will prevent an outbreak) – so treat your body and mind well. MOST important: take care of your body: prophylaxis and increasing resistance with good nutrition, fresh air, balanced exercise, sauna, hot/cold showers, drink enough
    • wash your hands, use rubber gloves, wash your clothes regularly and stop putting your fingers in your face and body openings … 😉 – but most importantly regularly clean that smartphone that seems glued to your hands (no sense in washing your hands if you touch it before and after…)
    • public interaction is considered one of the keys to transmit diseases: don^t use public transportation, walk, use your bike or car, avoid doctor’s offices, waiting rooms, restaurants, discos, bars, brothels, crowds – and of course airplanes and airports
    • clean surfaces, dishes, everything you regularly touch thoroughly
    • it looks like air travel passengers are monitored (for FEVER – not a virus test) and in case of positive results are rigorously put under quarantine (too bad if you have a fever for different reasons… ?) while automotive and train travel seem to remain un-monitored

Some useful facts:

  • the average infection is hardly distinguishable from a normal cold / flu
  • this is why the spreading of the virus is expected to be much larger than most numbers currently distributed lead to assume

WHO fact sheet: https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses

The most common symptoms of COVID-19 are fever, tiredness, and dry cough. Some patients may have aches and pains, nasal congestion, runny nose, sore throat or diarrhea. These symptoms are usually mild and begin gradually. Some people become infected but don’t develop any symptoms and don’t feel unwell. Most people (about 80%) recover from the disease without needing special treatment. Around 1 out of every 6 people who gets COVID-19 becomes seriously ill and develops difficulty breathing. Older people, and those with underlying medical problems like high blood pressure, heart problems or diabetes, are more likely to develop serious illness. About 2% of people with the disease have died. People with fever, cough and difficulty breathing should seek medical attention.

One of the most thorough articles at the time: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/?utm_source=feed

  • “The Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch is exacting in his diction, even for an epidemiologist. Twice in our conversation he started to say something, then paused and said, “Actually, let me start again.” So it’s striking when one of the points he wanted to get exactly right was this: “I think the likely outcome is that it will ultimately not be containable.”
  • Lipsitch predicts that, within the coming year, some 40 to 70 percent of people around the world will be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19. But, he clarifies emphatically, this does not mean that all will have severe illnesses. “It’s likely that many will have mild disease, or may be asymptomatic,”
  • The more the world enters lockdown and self-preservation mode, the more difficult it could be to soberly assess risk and effectively distribute tools, from vaccines and respirator masks to food and hand soap.
  • Ultimately some pandemic responses will require opening borders, not closing them. At some point the expectation that any area will escape effects of COVID-19 must be abandoned: The disease must be seen as everyone’s problem. (source – the Atlantic, Link above)

The good sides of C… 😉

  • Air-traffic is winding down
  • Cruise ship operators go bankrupt
  • Oil price is going down
  • China is smog free
  • We don’t hear anything of Greta anymore… 😉
  • It hits the rich and the poor, the powerful and the weak alike – no “class-system”

Opinion: I wish the public would spend less time on hoarding masks, food and toilet paper put more pressure on their governments for having “missed the train” in January… Closing down borders and regions will achieve nothing now.

TBC